Analysis – First part
Written by: Zeeshan Jamel
Recently, Afghanistan has made good progress in self-sufficiency and bilateral diplomatic relations, including the successful and fruitful visit of the country’s foreign minister to India, a rival country of Pakistan. This visit was not intended for competition by Afghanistan but for balanced diplomacy, expanding consular services in India, and understanding. However, Pakistan, India’s rival, could not tolerate this, and, as they wished, it did not happen. Therefore, they immediately violated Afghanistan’s territorial integrity and launched an air strike.
Pakistan’s Claims and Reality:
Pakistan claimed that they had targeted the leader of the Pakistani Taliban, Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud, in an airstrike on Afghanistan on October 9th. Pakistan aimed to achieve four things simultaneously with this strike: first, that the leadership of the Pakistani Taliban is in Afghanistan; second, that Pakistan can violate Afghanistan’s territorial integrity whenever they wishes; third, that it can reduce domestic political pressures and somehow convince their people that the Pakistani army can eliminate the threat; and fourth, that Afghanistan must adjust its diplomatic relations according to Pakistan’s demands. These four cases, which had important goals, were not achieved.
- The first claim that the leadership of the Pakistani Taliban is in Afghanistan and that the movement’s leader was targeted there proved to be false. A recent video of the movement’s leader, Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud, has been released, in which he denied being targeted by Pakistan and his presence in Kabul. He stated that he resides in the tribal area of Khyber and continues his struggle there. This video was the funeral of Pakistan’s intelligence agency’s honor.
- The second point is that whenever Pakistan wants, it will target the centers of irresponsible armed groups in Afghanistan and violate the country’s territorial integrity, but there will be no retaliatory measures. However, this time, Afghanistan did not remain silent as Pakistan had expected but responded in a way that the Pakistani army still could not comprehend, showing them that this land is not ownerless.
- Regarding the Pakistani army’s attempt to carry out this attack, reduce domestic political pressures, and somehow convince their people that the Pakistani army can eliminate threats everyplace; however, this can also be considered a failed attempt, as always. Because a few hours after this attack, the Pakistani Taliban and other armed groups have carried out several times more attacks in Pakistan than before, which we will briefly review.
The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) carried out numerous attacks in Peshawar, Bajaur, North Waziristan, Bannu, South Waziristan, Kohat, Tank, Orakzai, Dir, Kurram, Khyber, Dera Ismail Khan, Swat, and other areas from October 11th to 16th, with a total number of attacks reaching 64. Light and heavy weapons were used during these attacks, resulting in casualties among over 100 Pakistani militiamen. Their centers were destroyed, weapons and ammunition were seized, and vehicles were damaged.
The Etihadul-Mujahideen also carried out attacks in various parts of Pakistan from October 10th to 16th, totaling 18 attacks. These included ambushes, post seizures, and various types of attacks, causing casualties among numerous soldiers and resulting in the capture of a large number of weapons and ammunition, including drones.
If the attacks on Afghanistan have brought peace to Pakistan, reduced political pressure on the government, and allowed the Pakistani army to make progress and repel threats, then the results should be shared with the media and analysts. We can confidently say that violating Afghanistan’s territorial integrity, attacking civilian targets, and committing crimes will never bring peace to Pakistan nor reduce the pressures on that country.
- The fourth point, that Afghanistan should adjust diplomatic relations according to Pakistan’s demands, is also a dream and a fantasy. Afghans, especially the new rulers of Afghanistan, have established nationwide peace in Afghanistan after decades of struggle with the support of the people, and they have achieved independence at a very high price. The new Afghan government has chosen balanced diplomacy in the global village and, based on this policy, establishes and maintains interactions with every country in accordance with the demands of Islam. This government will not adjust its interactions to foreign pressure and demands at any cost. Therefore, any country, including Pakistan, that has incorrect demands in this regard should reconsider them.
With this, we can say that all the objectives of Pakistan’s first airstrike were unsuccessful and unattainable; these incorrect and unanalyzed decisions of the Pakistani military’s circle provoked the anger of Afghans against this country. Pakistan paid a price for this failed attack and violation of territorial integrity that it had never anticipated.
Reactions and Retaliatory Operations:
The Pakistani military’s nefarious circles did not analyze the damage and reactions they faced after the airstrike. In a statement, the Afghan Ministry of National Defense said: “We condemn this violation of Afghanistan’s airspace in the strongest terms, and defending our airspace is our right. After these actions, whatever the situation becomes, the consequences will be the responsibility of the Pakistani army.”
A day after this reaction, Afghanistan launched coordinated attacks on Pakistani military posts along the Durand Line from Nimroz to Nuristan. These attacks, which were well-prepared, used light and heavy weapons, and drones were also used in attacks on some posts. The results of these retaliatory operations were more positive than expected, and Pakistan was given a crushing response.
In retaliatory operations, dozens of Pakistani militia posts were captured, hundreds of militiamen were killed or wounded, and their weapons were seized. In these attacks, Afghan forces descended upon the enemy’s positions like Ababil, showing the enemy on behalf of the Afghan people that they would defend their land at the cost of their lives. They demonstrated a legitimate response in the language of action instead of words and showed how systematically and meticulously they protected the country’s territorial integrity.
Is Afghanistan a Threat to the Region or Pakistan?
On every international stage, Pakistan has raised a propaganda topic, rumors, and unrealistic concerns about Afghanistan, including the claim of the presence of irresponsible armed groups in Afghanistan, which Pakistan has repeatedly made, but the reality is something else.
After the end of the retaliatory operations, Afghan government spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid said in a press conference that Pakistan had turned a blind eye to the presence of the ISIS project and its hideouts on its territory, which killed its own religious scholars and people and also threatened the security and stability of Afghanistan and the region. He added that after ISIS was defeated in Afghanistan, they returned to their main locations in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and created new hideouts and centers there. Thru these centers, they recruited a large number of foreign individuals and then carried out dozens of attacks in Afghanistan, including in Iran and Moscow, for which there is concrete evidence.
Pakistan not only uses proxy groups like ISIS to destabilize Afghanistan and the region, but also wants to divert the world’s and the Pakistani people’s attention from the country’s instability and events in other countries in Afghanistan and the region. Pakistan, which has repeatedly made false accusations against Afghanistan of training and providing bases for their opposing armed groups and what they call a threat to Pakistan, should also address the questions: if Afghanistan is training irresponsible armed groups, why haven’t other countries in the region become unstable with them? Pakistan has thousands of posts along the Durand Line and special ISI monitoring teams at temporary border crossings (Torkham, Spin Boldak, Angor Ada, and others). So, how do irresponsible militants enter Pakistan and destabilize the country? Has Pakistan lost the ability to protect its sovereignty and stability?
It is well known that Pakistan’s claims are a clear evasion of responsibility. This country can not control their opponents and maintain stability in areas under its sovereignty. The reality is that the factors of instability in Pakistan are not armed groups, but rather the malicious circle within the Pakistani army, which, thru its incorrect and reckless actions, has turned the people of Pakistan against its sovereignty. All of this circle’s decisions are reckless, training armed groups on their own soil and posing a major threat to their own region. Not only the region, but the threat also extends to Europe.
The Continuation of Bilateral Conflicts and Pakistan’s Human Rights Crimes:
Pakistani forces suffered heavy losses from retaliatory operations, and the fighting stopped at midnight that night thru Saudi and Qatari mediation. However, Pakistan was preparing fresh troops, ammunition, and artillery battalions for further clashes, which were preempted by Afghan border police and defense forces, and they attacked in Khost. Along with this, fierce fighting also broke out in Spin Boldak, causing heavy casualties on the Pakistani side. However, in retaliation, Pakistani soldiers targeted and attacked civilians in Spin Boldak and Wesh, resulting in hundreds of civilian casualties, including women and children, with dozens killed.
After this clash, a ceasefire was requested for 48 hours at the strong insistence of Pakistan, which the Afghan government also accepted. In order to resolve the issues peacefully, they sent a high-level delegation led by the Minister of Defense to Qatar for negotiations. However, continuing their human rights and war crimes, the Pakistani side immediately launched airstrikes on civilian homes in Gomal, Paktika, as soon as the 48-hour ceasefire ended, targeting and killing a local cricket team including women, children, and the elderly.
Pakistan targeted innocent civilians, including two Afghan journalists, in this multi-day war, which is considered a clear human rights violation. Although the word ruman rights organization stated that Pakistan’s attacks on civilian targets in Afghanistan are a clear violation of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, the fact that these unjust attacks by the Pakistani army are only condemned by international organizations in a few statements does not alleviate anyone’s pain nor does it absolve these international organizations of their responsibility. They should thoroughly investigate these human rights crimes and present the perpetrators to international courts that have always made unrealistic statements about Afghanistan.
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