Analysis – Second part
By: Zeeshan Jamel
What’s the Aim of the Army for Destabilization of Pakistan?
There are a number of targeted attacks in the tribal areas across the Durand Line and other areas under Pakistani control, behind which Pakistan’s military intelligence (ISI) is involved. According to sources, the ISI is also directly involved in some of the attacks. However, by increasing these attacks, They want to pave the way for Asim Munir to declare martial law or, in other words, military government. Martial law has been repeated before in Pakistan’s history.
A major and imminent sign of Pakistan’s severe instability and the paving of the way for martial law was seen last week; police and military forces indiscriminately fired on protesters from the Tehreek-e-Labbaik party in Lahore, Pakistan, escalating the situation. In these shootings, 600 people from the party were injured or killed, their leader was wounded and abducted by the authorities, and thousands of other protesters were reportedly arrested. Prior to this, there have also been incidents of targeting elites and prominent figures, attacks on civilians under the pretext of targeting the Pakistani Taliban, and other instances of mass violence, which have contributed to instability.
Although the current situation in Pakistan is its own undeclared martial law, the ISI wants to pave the way for its official declaration. With the declaration of martial law, the military will stage a coup, overthrow the current civilian government that seeks good relations with Afghanistan and the region, and implement other matters planned by a particularly malicious military circle, including providing military bases to the United States to threaten and monitor China, Iran, and Russia in the region, strengthening the ISIS group to threaten Afghanistan and the region, recognizing Israel, and creating conflicts in the region.
According to credible sources, Asim Munir sent one of his close generals to Jordan to negotiate with the Israeli intelligence agency “Mossad” and bring Asim Munir to power according to a plan, after which he would recognize Israel and achieve the Zionist regime’s evil goals in the region. The killing of hundreds of members of the Tehreek-e-Labbaik party in Lahore, Pakistan, in support of Palestine, was a clear signal to demonstrate progress in negotiations and loyalty.
Pakistan has accustomed their military to “endless wars” with neighbors like India, Iran, and now Afghanistan, as this is the only way to justify the heavy taxes and huge expenses placed on the people’s shoulders to fund the country’s defense budget. Pakistan needs fundamental structural and ideological reforms. The Pakistani army has become a source of instability and acts like a man-made disaster in the region.
Furthermore, the plan to increase and perpetuate the war and conflicts is also the work of a specific circle within the army. They want to destabilize Pakistan thru this war, achieve malicious goals, and fulfill political objectives. That is why they have chosen war over negotiations and peace.
Reactions to Pakistan’s Aggression and Afghanistan’s Defense:
On October 9th, when Pakistan violated Afghan airspace and attacked, some of the Afghan government’s opponents, who are in reality Afghanistan’s permanent and true enemies, showed various reactions. They blamed the Afghan government for Pakistan’s attack and aggression, and instead of condemning Pakistan’s attack and supporting retaliatory operations, they sided with Pakistan and echoed the slogans of hostility that they had been using against that country for decades.
Among them, some high-ranking officials of the fallen republic revealed their true colors; Shivai Sharq said he was not Afghan and had no problems with Pakistan. Zia Massoud, a member of the Resistance Front, said that bombing Afghanistan is Pakistan’s legitimate right, and the blame lies with Afghanistan. In this group, the Resistance Council also reacted in favor of Pakistan. Not only the Resistance Council, but also those participants in the Islamabad meeting in September who sold their country, conscience, and soul for thirteen thousand rupees and a pair of clothes, supported Pakistan in the Pakistan-Afghanistan war and provided justifications for Pakistan’s aggression. They, who were bought for very little money, took a stand against national interests and supported Pakistan. Their actions have proven their hostility toward Pakistan and the lies of their two-decade-long claims.
So, come on, true Afghans, those committed to Islamic and national interests, strongly condemned Pakistan’s attack, considered retaliatory operations a legitimate right, and offered extensive support to the Afghan defense forces. The retaliatory operations against Pakistan became a point of unity for Afghans and support for the current Afghan government, an alliance and unity that might not have been achieved in many other ways. Whenever Afghans have achieved such unity against their eternal enemies, their enemies have not seen a peaceful day since.
Thousands of Afghans took to the streets in various cities to support the country’s defense and Afghan forces, offering flowers to Afghan soldiers, assuring them of their full support, enthusiastically praising Pakistan’s historic and crushing response, and calling it a historic achievement. They realized who the real Afghans are and who is truly committed to Islamic and national interests?!
Possible Events:
- Afghan and Pakistani side will reach agreements thru negotiations, starting with the issue of Afghanistan’s territorial integrity, and including other security issues, refugees, trade relations, and other matters, with a consensus reached on these, and the parties remaining committed to implementing the agreements.
- If Pakistan does not resolve the issues thru dialog, is not committed to the ceasefire agreement, and still chooses the path of aggression and conflict, then direct reactions from the Afghan side will manifest along the Durand Line, and indirect reactions will appear in some cities/regions of that country. The Afghan government may also target certain objectives within Pakistan that it has previously requested from Pakistan, such as ISIS group centers in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and others.
- Within Pakistan, political parties and groups will rise up against these destabilizing actions, military groups will take advantage of the situation to intensify attacks, efforts will be made to eliminate a particularly malicious circle within the army, and intervention and obstruction of the army will be carried out thru armed conflict, protests, and political pressure.
- The complete destruction of Pakistan could be a potential event requiring numerous measures and the acceptance of high risks; however, predicting it prematurely is an exaggeration.
Result and summary:
Based on the above analysis, it became clear that Pakistan’s air and ground attacks on Afghan territory were not just a military mistake but part of a failed political and strategic plan. The specific circles within the Pakistani army wanted to achieve several objectives with this attack: they wanted to reduce domestic pressure, prove the presence of the Pakistani Taliban leadership in Afghanistan, violate Afghanistan’s territorial integrity, and change the direction of Kabul’s diplomacy. However, all these objectives were thwarted on the ground. The leader of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan is alive and has appeared in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The swift and organized response of Afghan forces and the increase in attacks within Pakistan have shown that the Pakistani army and intelligence agencies have failed to accurately analyze the situation, and such ill-considered actions will never ease the pressure on the army.
This time, Afghanistan sent a new message on the field of defense; the Afghan government showed that this land is not without an owner and that it is capable of a legitimate and intelligent response to any attack. The coordinated attacks by Afghan forces, the support of the people, and the overall determination to preserve territorial integrity demonstrated that after the sacrifices of past decades, Afghans now have the full capacity to defend themselves. The retaliatory operation was not only a military success, but it also had political and psychological effects, as it further increased the unity of the Afghan nation and trust in the government.
On the other hand, the bombing of civilian targets by Pakistan and the killing of women, children, and journalists were a clear violation of human rights. These actions remained limited to the level of international organizations’ statements, but a serious investigation into this incident and the prosecution of the perpetrators should become an absolute demand of international organizations. This incident once again revealed that the malicious circles within the Pakistani army, which systematically work against their own people, neighbors, and even regional stability, are still active.
Afghanistan is moving toward a balanced policy, mutual respect, and independent decision-making today, and this process must continue. The time of force, propaganda, and military pressure is over; now is the time for genuine diplomacy, dialog, and understanding. If Pakistan wants to emerge from the deep crisis, they must choose the path of understanding instead of war, respect Afghanistan’s territorial integrity, and build relations based on mutual interests.
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