The growth and expansion of population at the global level require countries to maintain good relations in the region and worldwide in order to meet their needs and demands, and to continuously engage in exchanges with other nations. However, these relations must be based on mutual benefit and reciprocal respect.
Unfortunately, for several decades we have been dealing with a neighbor that has always prioritized only its own interests, sacrificing trade relations to achieve its political and intelligence objectives. Every year during the agricultural season, it imposes restrictions on our exports, closes the borders, and repeatedly suspends trade ties under various pretexts—causing millions of dollars in losses to Afghan traders and farmers. To permanently resolve this issue, the Economic Deputy Office of the Prime Minister has, in a new decision, completely severed all economic and commercial relations with this malicious neighbor. From an economic perspective, this is considered a sound and strategic long-term move for several reasons:
First: Based on the Sustainable Growth Theory, this decision is appropriate and a positive step. The theory explains that “economic growth must follow policies that ensure long-term stability and sustainability, even if they cause temporary delays or setbacks in short-term growth.” Therefore, although we may face some difficulties in the short run, in the long run this decision provides the foundation for economic growth, stability, and sustainable development.
Second: In economics, the Cost-Benefit Analysis Principle is an important concept. According to this principle, if long-term benefits outweigh short-term losses, then current losses should be tolerated in order to gain future long-term advantages. Based on this logic, while our commercial cutoff may cause certain losses in the short run, its long-term benefits are many times greater and far more significant.
Third: The Long-Run vs. Short-Run Principle emphasizes that short-term decisions usually focus on immediate gains and losses, while long-term decisions aim at capacity building, sustainable growth, and future stability. Cutting trade ties with Pakistan provides substantial long-term benefits: it strengthens domestic industries, stimulates economic growth, eliminates trade restrictions, expands investment, and opens new markets such as Central Asia, Iran, China, Russia, India, Turkey, and European countries.
Fourth: The Terms of Trade Concept requires attention to the ratio between exports and imports of two countries. Two nations can only benefit from mutual trade when their export-import ratio is reasonably balanced. In 2024, our imports from Pakistan were 2000 million dollars while our exports were 800 million dollars. This huge imbalance clearly shows that trade relations have not been in Afghanistan’s favor.
Fifth: According to the Trade Diversification Strategy, countries should not rely solely on one trading partner. Afghanistan, however, has always depended on Pakistan. When a partner constantly imposes restrictions, obstacles, and limitations, it becomes necessary to seek new markets and establish relations with other countries. This reduces future risks. For example, Vietnam and Bangladesh shifted toward European markets to escape India’s high tariffs.
Sixth: The Economic Nationalism Principle states that every country must make decisions based on the interests of its national economy. A country’s economy should be independent and not directly influenced by another nation’s decisions. Therefore, it is essential for countries to tolerate certain short-term risks to secure long-term economic independence and stability. To achieve a self-reliant, sustainable economy, Afghanistan must limit trade with Pakistan and develop alternative options.
Seventh: According to the Opportunity Cost Principle, every economic decision should be evaluated by comparing what is lost with what will be gained. If present sacrifices lead to greater long-term benefits, then these short-term losses should be accepted as part of a strategic and durable decision.
Overall, restricting trade relations with Pakistan is a significant and profound economic and strategic decision. Although it may involve temporary short-term losses, in the long run it can create major opportunities for Afghanistan: expansion of domestic investments, new opportunities for industries, job creation, access to new markets, broader trade relations with other nations, reduced dependence on a single country, greater market access for agricultural products, and expanded global opportunities for Afghan traders.
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